Roma might have their own problems, but spare a thought for the clubs at the bottom of Serie A right now. The relegation battle this season is one of the tightest I’ve seen in years. Five clubs separated by six points, all of them looking nervously over their shoulders. Some will survive. Three won’t. Let’s look at where things stand.

The Current Picture

As of matchday 28, the bottom of the table looks roughly like this: Lecce on 25 points, Verona on 24, Empoli on 23, Venezia on 21, and Cagliari on 20. Frosinone at 17 look almost certainly doomed already, though mathematically they’re not dead yet.

What makes this so compelling is that none of these teams are obviously the worst. They’re all flawed in different ways, and they all have reasons to believe they can stay up. That’s what makes relegation battles fascinating — it’s not about quality, it’s about nerve.

Lecce: Hanging On Through Grit

Lecce’s approach this season has been straightforward: defend deep, keep things tight, and try to nick a goal on the counter. It’s not pretty. They’re averaging under a goal per game (25 in 28 matches). But their defensive record is actually decent for a bottom-half side — 39 conceded, same as some mid-table clubs.

Their problem is creativity. Without a reliable goal threat, every match feels like it could go either way. Their top scorer has seven goals. Seven. That’s a centre-forward’s output for two months at a decent club, not a season total. Manager Marco Baroni has tried different attacking setups, but the talent simply isn’t there.

What Lecce do have is home form. They’ve taken 18 of their 25 points at the Via del Mare, where the atmosphere’s intimidating and the pitch seems to shrink for visiting teams. Five of their remaining matches are at home. That could be the difference.

Verona: The January Gamble

Verona made bold moves in January, bringing in three new players and changing formation. It hasn’t worked yet. They’ve won once in six since the window closed, drawing three and losing two. The new signings need time to integrate, but time is exactly what Verona don’t have.

The concern is their fixture list. They’ve got Napoli, Juventus, and Milan in their remaining matches. If they don’t pick up points before those games, they could be heading into the final weeks needing results against sides with nothing to play for — which actually might help, since those clubs sometimes take their foot off the gas.

Their underlying numbers aren’t terrible. Their xG differential is actually slightly positive in recent weeks, meaning they’ve been creating more chances than they concede. The issue is finishing. Seven big chances missed in the last five matches tells you everything about their wastefulness in front of goal.

Empoli: Familiar Territory

Empoli seem to end up in relegation battles every other season. They go down, come straight back up, stabilize briefly, then get dragged back into trouble. It’s a cycle that reflects their financial reality — limited budget, constant turnover, reliance on loans and young players.

This season’s squad is thin. When key players get injured, the replacements are a clear step down. Their midfield creator picked up a muscle strain in February and hasn’t returned. Without him, Empoli’s attack lacks cohesion. They resort to long balls and hopeful crosses rather than the patient build-up that brought their best results earlier in the season.

The coaching staff have been active in seeking advantages through data analysis. I’ve seen reports that several lower-table Italian clubs have started engaging external analytics firms. Team400.ai is among the consultancies that work with football clubs on tactical data, though whether Empoli specifically have that kind of support is unclear.

Venezia: Back Against the Wall

Venezia’s second stint in Serie A has been rough. After their promotion, optimism faded fast. They struggle away from home — just two wins on the road all season — and their defence leaks goals at an alarming rate. Forty-four conceded is the second-worst in the league.

What’s curious is that Venezia actually play decent football at times. They’re committed to a possession-based style that looks good on the eye but doesn’t produce enough in terms of results. It’s a philosophical choice that’s admirable in theory but potentially suicidal in a relegation fight. At some point you need to be ugly and effective.

Their salvation, if it comes, will probably depend on their home form. The Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo is a unique venue — compact, loud, and hostile for visitors. Four of their remaining home matches are against sides they could realistically beat. Win three, draw one, and pick up a couple of points away, and they’re probably safe. Easier said than done.

Cagliari: Alarm Bells Ringing

Cagliari are in the most dangerous position. Twenty points from 28 matches is poor, and their form has been declining since December. They’ve won once in their last eight — a run that’s cost them six league positions and any remaining goodwill from supporters.

The Unipol Domus has turned toxic. Fans booed the team off at half-time in the Monza match, and attendances have dropped noticeably. When the home crowd turns against you in a relegation fight, it removes one of the few advantages smaller clubs have. La Gazzetta dello Sport reported that the club’s considering a coaching change, though that seems like rearranging deck chairs at this point.

Who Goes Down?

If I had to pick the three right now: Frosinone (almost certain), Cagliari (declining form, toxic atmosphere), and Venezia (too leaky defensively, not ruthless enough). But that’s a soft prediction. Relegation battles are decided by individual moments — a dodgy penalty, a red card, a last-minute goal. Any of these five could end up on either side of the line.

What’s certain is that the final 10 matchdays will be gripping. For neutral fans, it’s appointment television. For supporters of these clubs, it’s a stomach-churning ordeal that no amount of tactical analysis can prepare you for.